In the year 2024, twenty African nations are slated to hold presidential or national elections, representing over 37% of the continent’s countries. This underscores a significant engagement in the democratic process, wherein leaders are chosen to govern for the ensuing electoral terms. The multitude of elections necessitates a comprehensive evaluation of Africa’s overall governance quality and the extent of democratic consolidation.
The extensive electoral schedule presents both challenges and opportunities for the political stability of the continent. Out of the twenty scheduled elections, 30% will occur in Southern Africa, 25% in West Africa, 20% in North Africa, and 10% in Central Africa. The Regional Economic Communities (RECs) will shoulder the responsibility of managing peace and security within their respective regions. Additionally, they will be actively engaged in election observation missions to support member states in conducting elections in accordance with their Protocols and those of the African Union (AU).
To date, only one election has taken place, occurring in Comoros on January 14th. The country’s electoral commission declared President Azali Assoumani the winner with 62.97% of the vote. However, the Comoros Supreme Court later validated the President’s win with 57.2% of the vote, sparking allegations of electoral fraud from opposition parties. Consequently, protests erupted in Moroni on January 17th and 18th, resulting in widespread property damage. Law enforcement responded with teargas and bullets, resulting in casualties and arrests, prompting the imposition of a curfew on January 18th to restore order.
Another instance of election-related unrest unfolded following the postponement of the Senegalese presidential election scheduled for February 25th. The President’s decision to delay the election until December 2024 due to challenges in candidate selection elicited disapproval from opposition parties, who accused him of seeking to extend his term. This led to protests in Dakar, causing significant political instability. Subsequently, the President reversed his decision following judicial intervention.
These cases underscore the imperative of ensuring that elections are perceived as free and fair by all stakeholders, particularly citizens. They also highlight the profound impact of elections on political stability within the broader governance, peace, and security framework. While the outset of the election year may seem turbulent, these incidents serve as early warnings for stakeholders to contribute to more peaceful and stable elections in the future.
Looking at the regional distribution of Africa’s elections, the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA) is set to witness elections in all but one of its member states, accounting for 80% of its membership. Mauritania’s election is scheduled for June 22nd, while Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia are yet to finalize their election dates. Tunisia’s upcoming election holds particular significance following President Kais Saied’s dissolution of parliament in 2021 and constitutional reforms. Amidst concerns over shrinking civic space and democratic decline, Tunisia’s 2024 election presents an opportunity to restore democracy not only within the country but across the UMA region, potentially averting a second Arab Spring.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) will host the largest number of elections, with six member states in line for polls. Botswana, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, and South Africa await their turn. The SADC’s Electoral Observer Mission (SEOM) and Electoral Advisory Council (SEAC) must remain vigilant to monitor these elections in accordance with the SADC Principles and Guidelines on Elections, addressing any potential conflicts that may arise.
In the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan are gearing up for elections. Ethiopia aims to build upon the November 2023 peace deal concerning the Tigray conflict, amidst escalating violence in the Amhara region, which led to the extension of a state of emergency earlier this month.
All eyes are on the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), with elections slated in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Mali, and Senegal. The resurgence of coups in West Africa places immense pressure on ECOWAS, compounded by the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the regional bloc. While Burkina Faso and Mali navigate post-coup political landscapes, it remains uncertain whether they will achieve constitutional changes of government through democratic elections this year or face further postponements.
The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) anticipates elections in two out of its eleven member states. In Chad and Rwanda, minimal changes are expected regarding national leadership. Skepticism surrounds the Chadian election, which has been postponed multiple times since April 2021 when General Mahamat Deby assumed power. Similarly, Rwanda’s July election is likely to see the continuation of President Paul Kagame’s tenure.
As Africa progresses through its electoral calendar, several key factors will shape the events. Firstly, increased participation of the continent’s youthful population in elections and their representation in political offices will be pivotal. Secondly, the role of election observer missions will be enhanced, providing critical checks and balances within domestic electoral processes. Thirdly, the AU and RECs must implement robust preventive measures and decisive responses to undemocratic electoral practices, mitigating potential civic unrest and political instability throughout 2024.
